Intersecting Transitions in a Fragmented Global Energy Order

Global Energy Transition Pressures

The global energy landscape is undergoing profound transformation. Climate change, rapid technological innovation, and intensifying geopolitical pressures are reshaping how modern states design policies to achieve greater energy security and long-term sustainability. The Paris Agreement and subsequent COP negotiations have established a framework in which governments are expected to pursue decarbonization while ensuring reliable supply; this dual challenge—climate neutrality and energy security—defines the strategic environment for both Switzerland and Turkey.

Europe, in particular, faces heightened pressures. The war in Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities arising from fossil fuel dependency, while the rapid expansion of renewables has increased the need for grid stability and cross-border cooperation. Within this context, small and mid-sized states such as Switzerland and Turkey play outsized roles: Switzerland as a center for energy trading and diplomacy, Turkey as a strategic transit corridor linking Europe to Asia and the Middle East.

At first sight, Switzerland and Turkey appear dissimilar. Switzerland is a wealthy, landlocked state with a long-standing tradition of neutrality and a highly developed hydropower sector. Turkey, by contrast, is a large, geopolitically assertive country with substantial fossil fuel dependence and ambitions to serve as a regional energy hub. Yet comparing them is analytically valuable for three reasons:

1. Intermediary Roles: Switzerland intermediates energy through financial markets and electricity trading; Turkey intermediates physical flows of oil and gas through pipelines.

2. Strategic Constraints: Switzerland's non-EU status complicates institutional integration; Turkey's tense relations with the EU and reliance on Russian supplies complicate its diversification strategy.

3. Long-Term Ambitions: Switzerland emphasizes renewables and efficiency, while Turkey emphasizes diversification and regional leverage.

Geography and political positioning reinforce these contrasts:

Switzerland:

• Landlocked, reliant on imports for fossil fuels and winter electricity.

• Neutrality provides diplomatic credibility but limits integration with EU institutions.

• Strong domestic commitment to climate neutrality, yet a contested nuclear phase-out.

Turkey:

• Geopolitically pivotal, straddling Europe and Asia.

• Controls major oil and gas transit routes (TANAP, TurkStream).

• Energy policy tightly linked to regional ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea.

The importance of this comparison lies in the fact that both countries occupy strategic positions in Europe's energy architecture—Switzerland institutionally and financially, Turkey infrastructurally and geopolitically.

The purpose of this Policy Brief is not to argue that Switzerland and Turkey share identical energy paths. Rather, it is to highlight where their distinct trajectories intersect within Europe's broader transition. Switzerland's focus on renewables and efficiency contrasts with Turkey's focus on diversification and transit leverage. Yet both must reconcile domestic needs with international commitments.

Switzerland's Energy Policy and Trajectory

Switzerland's energy system is shaped by geography and political choices. Hydropower dominates, generating roughly 60% of electricity. Nuclear power, though politically contested, still provides around 30%, ensuring winter stability. Solar and wind remain limited but are rapidly expanding through federal incentives. Fossil fuels—primarily oil and gas—are used mainly for transport and heating, leaving Switzerland dependent on imports for nearly half of total energy consumption.

This import dependence creates structural vulnerabilities. Being landlocked and without fossil reserves, Switzerland relies heavily on neighbors for supply. Winter electricity deficits are particularly acute, as hydropower output drops and solar generation is limited. This seasonal gap underscores the need for cross-border electricity trading and deeper integration with European markets.

The Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) outlines a clear trajectory toward 2030:

• Expansion of renewable energy, with solar capacity expected to quadruple.

• Improved efficiency in buildings and transport sectors.

• No new nuclear plants following the 2011 post-Fukushima decision; gradual decommissioning of existing reactors.

• Grid modernization, including smart grids and storage technologies to manage intermittent renewable flows.

By 2030, Switzerland aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 1990 levels, in line with its Paris Agreement commitments.

Looking toward 2040, a deeper structural transition is expected. Electrification of mobility will be widespread, supported by expanded charging networks. Heating systems will shift away from oil and gas toward electric heat pumps and district heating, which are significantly more efficient. Storage technologies—pumped-storage hydropower and advanced batteries—will help bridge seasonal deficits. Fossil imports will decline substantially, though not disappear entirely. Switzerland's energy system will be predominantly renewable but still reliant on imports and technological innovation for stability.

The long-term objective is climate neutrality by 2050. Achieving this requires complete integration of renewables, complemented by hydrogen and synthetic fuels for industry and aviation. Limited carbon capture will be deployed for hard-to-abate sectors. Cross-border cooperation will be indispensable, as seasonal deficits and a nuclear-free path make Switzerland dependent on European electricity trade. The 2050 vision is ambitious but constrained by geography, political decisions, and security of supply concerns.

Switzerland's International Positioning

Energy diplomacy reflects Switzerland's position outside the European Union. Although it participates actively in electricity trading, exclusion from EU energy governance mechanisms due to stalled institutional negotiations remains a strategic limitation. Bilateral cooperation with neighboring France, Germany, Italy, and Austria is essential for grid stability and balancing during deficit periods.

Globally, Switzerland plays an active role in climate diplomacy within COP negotiations and supports multilateral transition funds. Financial hubs in Geneva and Zurich strengthen influence by hosting energy trading and green finance institutions. While neutrality enhances diplomatic credibility, lack of institutional integration limits influence over EU energy policy.

Key Advantages

• Hydropower as a strategic asset: flexible, renewable, and exportable.

• Innovation leadership: strong R&D in storage, hydrogen, and efficiency.

• Diplomatic leverage: neutrality and credibility in climate diplomacy.

• Financial hub role: energy trading and green finance reinforce influence.

Türkiye's Energy Policy and Geopolitical Role

Türkiye's energy system reflects both domestic needs and geopolitical ambitions. Its energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels—natural gas, coal, and oil—creating vulnerabilities due to heavy import dependence, particularly from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan. At the same time, Türkiye has positioned itself as a major transit hub between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Pipelines such as TANAP and TurkStream highlight Turkey's role as a corridor state, enabling it to convert geography into political leverage.

Domestically, Türkiye seeks to diversify its energy mix and reduce dependence on imports. Renewables—especially wind and solar—have grown rapidly over the past decade through incentives and feed-in tariffs. Hydropower remains significant but faces environmental constraints. Nuclear power is central to Turkey's long-term strategy; the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, built with Russia, symbolizes both modernization efforts and deeper geopolitical engagement.

By 2030, Türkiye aims to raise the renewable share of electricity to at least 30% while reducing coal dependence. Electrification of transport and efficiency measures in industry are planned, though implementation varies. Domestic natural gas production in the Black Sea is a key component of its diversification strategy.

Toward 2040, Türkiye envisions a balanced system with nuclear providing stable baseload, renewables expanding, and domestic gas reducing import dependence. However, regional tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean complicate this outlook, with disputes over maritime boundaries and offshore exploration fueling diplomatic friction.

By 2050, Türkiye aims to become a fully integrated energy hub—handling not only fossil fuels but also renewables and potentially hydrogen. While Türkiye aligns with global decarbonization trends, its net-zero commitment remains less clearly defined than Switzerland's.

Türkiye's Energy Diplomacy

Energy diplomacy is inseparable from broader foreign policy. Relations with the EU remain strained, limiting cooperation despite geographic interdependence. Strong ties with Russia underpin nuclear development and gas transit, while ties with Azerbaijan—through TANAP—cement Türkiye's role in the Caspian-to-Europe corridor. Assertive exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean both challenge EU partners and reinforce Türkiye's regional ambitions.

Key Opportunities and Challenges

• Transit hub leverage: strategic corridor for oil and gas.

• Renewable expansion: strong growth in wind and solar.

• Nuclear development: stable capacity but geopolitical risks.

• Regional influence: control over pipelines and maritime routes.

• Domestic gas discoveries: potential reduction in import dependence.

Switzerland–Türkiye Energy Cooperation and Comparative Analysis

Although geographically and structurally different, Switzerland and Türkiye share a long-standing diplomatic foundation that supports cooperation beyond mere comparison. The 1925 Treaty of Friendship provides a century-long framework, reinforced by the 1988 Bilateral Investment Treaty and the modernized EFTA–Türkiye Free Trade Agreement of 2018. Together, these agreements strengthen investment protection, facilitate trade, and open opportunities for collaboration in key energy sectors. Swiss firms gain access to Turkish infrastructure projects, while Turkish companies benefit from Swiss technology and finance.

Both states are members of the OECD, WTO, OSCE, and Council of Europe, providing multilateral platforms for dialogue on energy governance and sustainability. Switzerland's neutrality and financial strength complement Türkiye's infrastructure and transit leverage, creating potential synergies in renewable technologies, hydrogen trade, and efficiency solutions. Joint participation in the Energy Charter Treaty further supports secure cross-border investment frameworks.

Key Opportunities for Cooperation

• Leveraging EFTA–Türkiye FTA: expanding trade in renewable and hydrogen technologies.

• Investment protection under BIT: encouraging Swiss participation in Türkiye's renewable and nuclear projects.

• Energy Charter Treaty mechanisms: securing investments and resolving disputes.

• Academic and R&D partnerships: joint research on storage, grid modernization, and synthetic fuels.

• Symbolic momentum from the 1925 Treaty centenary: launching new bilateral initiatives.

Switzerland's strengths in finance, innovation, and diplomacy can directly support Türkiye's diversification goals. Türkiye's infrastructure, geography, and transit capacity, in return, provide Switzerland with diversification channels that mitigate seasonal vulnerabilities. Strengthening cooperation through existing treaties and multilateral institutions can enable both countries to progress along a shared path toward a more resilient energy future.